Armchair financial quarterbacks would do well to tune out the mass media every so often and tune into the real global dialogue on the nature of the recent crisis and our prospects for a sustainable recovery. It is no coincidence that those whose perspective is truly global consider the fundamental nature of our modern political economy in terms of decades not days, systems not statistics, and welfare not wealth.

In this speech, given just weeks before the March 2008 arranged marriage of Bear Stearns and JPMorgan, this banker to central bankers dissects the credit crisis of 2007 and calls attention to dangerous fault-lines that presaged the apocalyptic deleveraging of the next 18 months…

In the midst of a global financial pandemic, private enterprise finds itself under the public microscope yet again — as it did during the 1930s after a century of unbridled growth and later in the 1970s after decades of stifling regulatory oversight. With this 21st century changing of the guard, the theoretical bases for free market capitalism are now under academic and legislative review. At the heart of the debate is the accuracy of the economic models taught to college students around the planet as though they were immutable physical laws.

Contagion could be used to describe much of the activity in the capital markets over the last 40 years, as global financial flows have accelerated, trade and capital barriers have disappeared, regulatory oversight has diminished, and financial innovation has made the packaging and sale of securities as easy as ordering a Big Mac combo. From defaults on recycled petrodollars in the early 1980s, to the Mexican peso crisis in 1994, to the “Asian Contagion” in 1997-98, and most recently the Great Collapse of 2008, what began as sanity checks on asset values and risk metrics quickly evolved into stampedes of herding capital feeling to higher ground.

Few economists now doubt that private household spending and corporate investment will rescue the economy on their own. The debate now lies in the scale and scope of the government’s intervention, as the only institution with the access to capital, macroeconomic scope, and investment horizon needed to jump-start the labor market, keep production cycles from seizing up, and create the necessary conditions for manageable lending and spending to resume.

Over-the-counter gambling on the markets has been around much longer than modern derivatives pundits would have you believe. The New York Times was warning against “casino capitalism” as early as 1905, when side bets on market movements were both commonplace and unregulated, and won the attention of an American government still swaggering after its victory over the mega-trust companies of the late 19th century. The following 60 Minutes segment discusses both the nature of CDS instruments and how they’ve become just as dangerous today as they were in the “bucket rooms” or gambling houses of the 1920s…

As markets continue to reel from the too-little-too-late conservative ethos that is snaking its way through the world’s major financial institutions, the wisdom of blind faith in some “invisible hand” is finally being put to the test. At stake are trillions of dollars of borrowed money floating anonymously within complex and unregulated markets, coupled with with an imploding US dollar, soaring energy demand in high-growth emerging economies, troublesome “business as usual” predictions for worldwide carbon emissions, and gross negligence in coordinating the world’s basic agricultural equilibrium. If free markets and “the wisdom of crowds” are truly the answer to the complex challenges of global resource coordination, recent evidence isn’t the least bit convincing…