the rational post » war

calculated terror

The Editor — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 04:27:01 +0000

In the 400+ years since the birth of modern statistics, data has been collected on everything from life expectancy and planetary motion to little league batting averages and micro-loans in rural Bangladesh. As technology catches up with the world’s desire to better predict the future and understand the past, applications have expanded to include dynamic models of the global economy and more recently the probability of a terrorist attack. The danger with relying on this methodology, of course, is that the same statistical biases that contributed to the recent financial chaos may cause more harm in the real world than they ever did on…

demise of the dollar

The Editor — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:34:28 +0000

This type of geopolitical conspiracy would be easy to dismiss from any other source, but speculation of an imminent de-dollarization by some of the world’s largest oil consumers is even more chilling when it’s penned by one of Britain’s most celebrated international journalists…

The demise of the dollar
By Robert Fisk, October 6, 2009

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to…

the forever war

The Editor — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:35:32 +0000

If there’s any doubt remaining among global power-brokers that short-term foreign policy objectives are fundamentally flawed, recent events in the Levant have provided ample evidence. Such tribal conflict has played out in the Garden of Eden since northern Neanderthals and southern proto-human colonies first crossed paths during the last major Ice Age. Since that time, control over the region has changed hands a number of times, from Semetic tribes to Egyptian pharaohs to Roman Catholics to Muslim traders to Christian crusaders to Muslim Turks, and so forth. For every fence that was built and every line that was drawn, rivals always built a bigger ladder or dug a deeper tunnel. And so the feud was passed from generation to generation,…

the brotherhood

The Editor — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 03:59:58 +0000

The Economist has a knack for understanding leading indicators, be they economic, financial or political. This time, Russia falls under the looking glass, and the rise of the siloviki present yet another cause for Western concern. With allied hands tied in the Middle East chasing volatile natural resources and battling a crisis of confidence here at home, Putin & Co. apparently don’t need an invitation to continue consolidating their grip on one of the world’s largest and most important geopolitical economies…

Russia under Putin
The making of a neo-KGB state
Aug 23rd 2007 | MOSCOW

ON THE evening of August 22nd 1991—16 years ago this week—Alexei Kondaurov, a…

preemptive defense

The Editor — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 05:23:58 +0000

“Now that an immediate peril is not plainly visible, there is a natural tendency to relax and to return to business as usual…. But I feel that we are seriously failing in our attitude toward the international problems whose solution will largely determine our future.”

George C. Marshall
Washington’s Birthday Remarks at Princeton University
February 22, 1947

The Preventive Defense Project (PDP) is a research collaboration of Stanford University and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, co-directed by William J. Perry and Ashton B. Carter. The Project focuses on key problems of national and international security with the aim of preventing possible threats from becoming actual threats. The Project promotes the concept…

the price of liberty

The Editor — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 15:03:07 +0000

Spending taxpayers money on a massive military offensive has its own unique economic consequences, but borrowing money from abroad to finance sustained hostilities half-way around the world places the American executive in a vulnerable position vis-a-vis the international community. This moderated conversation, featuring Robert Hormats — currently Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs International and a former Assistant Secretary of State, member of the National Security Council, and US Trade Ambassador — touches on the myriad economic and political challenges that emerge when war is funded by outsiders while policy projects from within…

The Price of Liberty: Paying For America’s Wars
Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, DC
May 16, 2007

KORB: Let me talk about this important…

commencement

The Editor — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 13:59:55 +0000

Words of worldly wisdom from the Commander in Chief at the Coast Guard Academy this past May. 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq are discussed in what feels more like a rally for some of the President’s biggest fiscal beneficiaries than a speech to send off America’s freshest military talent to the front lines of the war on terror…

Alumni Building
United States Coast Guard Academy
New London, Connecticut
11:41 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, all. Admiral Allen, thank you for that kind introduction. Admiral Burhoe, congratulations on your promotion. Academy staff and faculty, Congressman Chris Shays, state and local officials, distinguished guests, proud families and, most importantly, members of the Class of 2007: thanks for…

a history of violence

The Editor — Mon, 15 Jan 2007 19:24:50 +0000

“Nationalism is like cheap alcohol.
First, it makes you drunk, then it makes you blind, and then it kills you.”
- Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary of State, U.S. State Department

With a history of social chaos that spans most of human existence, it isn’t surprising that personal freedom is a fairly recent phenomena. This so-called “inalienable right” was only introduced in Holland, France, America and the fragile Ottoman Empire over the last few centuries, after years of philosophical introspection and ultimately bloody rebellion. Unlike the fall of the Roman and Greek empires — where authority was more regulatory than ascendant — these “populist” revolutions signaled not merely a new set of rules but also a radical…

if looks could kill

The Editor — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 20:56:42 +0000

“It’s hard for Americans, all of us, including me, to understand what’s wrong with these people. Why do they kill people of other religions because of religion? Why do they hate the Israelis and despise their right to exist? Why do they hate each other? Why do Sunnis kill Shiites? How do they tell the difference? They all look the same to me.”
- Trent Lott, Republican Senator from Mississippi, up for re-election on November 7, 2006

elephants

The Editor — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 01:04:55 +0000

A Nationalist Manifesto

There are too many elephants in the room. During our teens it was understandable, but this country is almost 140 years old. It’s time to stop ignoring the obvious. The 21st century might be filled with promise, but not if we don’t change course.

As it stands, we are far too dependant on natural resources, and they’re far too dependant on us. Our Prime Minister, under a majority mandate, is essentially a dictator. Our immigrants are both our biggest asset and our biggest liability. China is real.…

thai-coup

The Editor — Tue, 19 Sep 2006 15:11:51 +0000

Rumours surfaced this morning about another military coup in Thailand, while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra attends the UN General Assembly in New York. All eyes were set to watch Bush and his Iranian arch-nemesis wage battle in the halls of international opinion, but all that may change as this new Asian drama unfolds…

1701

The Editor — Sat, 12 Aug 2006 16:40:07 +0000

With ink still drying on the UN Security Council’s draft resolution, Nusrullah has finally agreed to a cessation of hostilities, but insists that the fight will continue as long as Israeli troops are still on the ground. This, at a time when Israel itself has just voted to triple the size of its current military operation and continues to airlift troops into Southern Lebanon. Only time will tell if this latest in a long series of diplomatic efforts will succeed where the others have so catastrophically failed…

UNSC DRAFT RESOLUTION LEBANON 1701

The Security Council,

PP1. Recalling all its previous resolutions on Lebanon, in particular resolutions 425…

breakpoint

The Editor — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:50:14 +0000

Often referred to as a ‘private CIA,’ Stratfor just released an update on their coverage of the escalating violence in Iraq, the threat of another Sunni-Shi’a Civil War, and the challenge of unbridled Iranian imperialsm. Definitely worth a read if you haven’t been following the not-so-mainstream news…

Breakpoint: What went Wrong

By Dr. George Friedman
CEO, Security Consulting Intelligence Agency

On May 23, we published a Geopolitical Intelligence Report titled “Break Point.” In that article, we wrote: “It is now nearly Memorial Day. The violence in Iraq will surge, but by July 4 there either will be clear signs that the Sunnis are controlling the insurgency — or there won’t. If…

charlie rose

The Editor — Fri, 04 Aug 2006 17:44:35 +0000

Below is a transcript of the Charlie Rose interview with Rami Khoury, Editor-at-Large of The Daily Star, a leading English-language newspaper in Beirut. In the Middle East it’s been difficult to find a convincing argument against continued Israeli engagment in a non-Arab tongue, but this exchange, filmed on July 19th, cuts as close to the heart of the conflict as I’ve seen from a Palestinian commentator.

Charlie then followed up yesterday with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who summarized the situation in his typical, pragmatic prose, sucessfully bringing Iran and nuclear arms into the discussion and accepting America’s share of the blame for mishandling the meltdown from the start. I’ve yet to find a transcript of the…

a golden summer

The Editor — Wed, 02 Aug 2006 18:25:32 +0000

An article on Slate.com from another American journalist with no desire to leave the greatest city in the Middle East. I’m with Faerlie…maybe it’s time to start buying up Lebanese real estate

Staying On: Why I’m not evacuating Beirut.
By Faerlie Wilson

BEIRUT, Lebanon—From my balcony this afternoon, I watched as French, British, and American evacuees boarded chartered cruise ships in Beirut’s port about a half-mile west of my apartment.

And over the last few days, while bombs and artillery pummeled the southern part of the city, I made the decision not to leave Lebanon. Explosions rock my building even as I write this, but I’m staying put.

I’m not crazy, and I harbor no death wish. This is…