Stopping the spread of financial contagion is deceptively similar to plugging a ruptured deep-sea oil well: the cost is epic, the risk of failure is catastrophic, and expectations of success may be more hopeful than realistic. Recent efforts to address both crises share so many elements that a few tweaks to the following report on the Gulf catastrophe also freakishly describes efforts by the Eurozone to head off the risk of cascading sovereign defaults…

Armies of bulls and bears are camped out on either side of the great debate over the future of the global economy. Armed with the latest statistics and plenty of financial incentive, both sides are engaged in massive media campaigns to rally anyone left on the fence — principally retail investors who were either burned in the great collapse of 2008-09 or sat out the fast and furious rally over the past 14 months. As the rhetoric heats up, it becomes increasingly difficult to choose sides. A careful examination of these competing wagers provides a more holistic perspective for anyone brave enough to join the fight.

In the 400+ years since the birth of modern statistics, data has been collected on everything from life expectancy and planetary motion to little league batting averages and micro-loans in rural Bangladesh. As technology catches up with the world’s desire to better predict the future and understand the past, applications have expanded to include dynamic models of the global economy and more recently the probability of a terrorist attack. The danger with relying on this methodology, of course, is that the same statistical biases that contributed to the recent financial chaos may cause more harm in the real world than they ever did on Wall Street…

“In 1969, a 14-year-old Beatle fanatic named Jerry Levitan, armed with a reel-to-reel tape deck, snuck into John Lennon’s hotel room in Toronto and convinced John to do an interview about peace. 38 years later, Jerry has produced a film about it. Using the original interview recording as the soundtrack, director Josh Raskin has woven a visual narrative which tenderly romances Lennon’s every word in a cascading flood of multipronged animation. Raskin marries the terrifyingly genius pen work of James Braithwaite with masterful digital illustration by Alex Kurina, resulting in a spell-binding vessel for Lennon’s boundless wit, and timeless message…”

As the Annus Horribilis finally comes to an end, many forecasters in the policy and financial communities have been left licking their wounds. This effort from Moises Naim and his team at Foreign Policy tries to capture the best of the worst and is certainly worth a look…

This paper was written for quite possibly the best combination of professor and class I’ve ever experienced. If only all academic endeavor challenged so profoundly, surveyed so broadly, and bore as much intellectual fruit…
Hegemonic Stability and the Rise of Global Corporations
by Devin DeCiantis
“The logic of markets is borderless,
but the logic of politics remains bounded.”
- Louis W. Pauley, Who Elected the Bankers? Surveillance and Control in the World Economy, 1997

After an inhospitable welcome at Columbia University and a defense of Iranian intentions in the halls of the UN, it was up to Charlie Rose to coax a straight answer from the puzzling Persian President and his schizophrenic vacillations between coherence and crusade. Neither Rose nor Ahmadinejad disappoint…

Words of worldly wisdom from the Commander in Chief at the Coast Guard Academy this past May. 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq are discussed in what feels more like a rally for some of the President’s biggest fiscal beneficiaries than a speech to send off America’s freshest military talent to the front lines of the war on terror…

“Nationalism is like cheap alcohol.
First, it makes you drunk, then it makes you blind, and then it kills you.”
- Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary of State, U.S. State Department
With a history of social chaos that spans most of human existence, it isn’t surprising that personal freedom is a fairly recent phenomena. This so-called “inalienable right” was only introduced in Holland, France, America and the fragile Ottoman Empire over the last few centuries, after years of philosophical introspection and ultimately bloody rebellion. Unlike the fall of the Roman and Greek empires — where authority was more regulatory than ascendant — these “populist” revolutions signaled not merely a new set of rules but also a radical shift in personal identity. Living …

Another topical analysis from the team over at Stratfor. This time, they tackle a much older problem, the relationship between religion and fundamentalist war. When taken in context, the 14th century passage that has outraged Muslims around the planet is not so much a challenge to Islam itself as it is a warning shot across the bow of its more fanatical elements. If Friedman is right, Pope Benedict may have just done for the war-torn Middle East what his predecessor did for the Soviet Empire. If he isn’t, this might be the beginning of another global crusade…
Faith, Reason and Politics: Parsing the Pope’s Remarks
By George Friedman
On Sept. 12, Pope Benedict XVI delivered a lecture on “Faith, Reason and the University” …

Rumours surfaced this morning about another military coup in Thailand, while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra attends the UN General Assembly in New York. All eyes were set to watch Bush and his Iranian arch-nemesis wage battle in the halls of international opinion, but all that may change as this new Asian drama unfolds…

In light of the grand sociopolitical developments over the last eight years, this speech by the former prime minister has found some new legs…