the rational post » geopolitics

the great recession: act ii

The Editor — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 00:55:54 +0000

As Canadians sparred over fake lakes, budget-busting security, and the global capitalist conspiracy, the world’s twenty most influential leaders convened in Toronto this past June to negotiate a response to the worst financial crisis in generations. At issue was an age old debate between two economic philosophies: stimulus as a life vest versus stimulus as a straitjacket. The pro-life camp was championed by consumerist America and its global supply chain. The pro-restraint camp was led by conservative Germany and its regional demand chain. At risk were millions of jobs, trillions in debt, and quite possibly the fate of our modern political economy.

With so much on the line, the G20’s vague and non-committal communique was particularly troublesome,…

a dose of reality

The Editor — Wed, 05 May 2010 15:06:39 +0000

Armies of bulls and bears are camped out on either side of the great debate over the future of the global economy. Armed with the latest statistics and plenty of financial incentive, both sides are engaged in massive media campaigns to rally anyone left on the fence — principally retail investors who were either burned in the great collapse of 2008-09 or sat out the fast and furious rally over the past 14 months. As the rhetoric heats up, it becomes increasingly difficult to choose sides. A careful examination of these competing wagers provides a more holistic perspective for anyone brave enough to join the fight.

Victory lap

Having survived the worst correction in generations, major indices are now…

demise of the dollar

The Editor — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:34:28 +0000

This type of geopolitical conspiracy would be easy to dismiss from any other source, but speculation of an imminent de-dollarization by some of the world’s largest oil consumers is even more chilling when it’s penned by one of Britain’s most celebrated international journalists…

The demise of the dollar
By Robert Fisk, October 6, 2009

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to…

after the crisis

The Editor — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:53:02 +0000

Exploring the recent economic “upheaval” through the lens of history helps in at least two ways: 1) it assures us that humanity has faced similar dangers in the past and somehow lived to tell the tale, and 2) it suggests that the same entrepreneurial instincts that led us into trouble (yet again) also hold the key to restoring stability and growth. This speech by the President of the World Bank highlights a series of events that presaged the crisis — like the “emergence” of emerging economies, the popularity of leveraged finance, and growing imbalances of trade — focusing less on the outcome and more on the decades of unbridled expansion that inspired…

the forever war

The Editor — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:35:32 +0000

If there’s any doubt remaining among global power-brokers that short-term foreign policy objectives are fundamentally flawed, recent events in the Levant have provided ample evidence. Such tribal conflict has played out in the Garden of Eden since northern Neanderthals and southern proto-human colonies first crossed paths during the last major Ice Age. Since that time, control over the region has changed hands a number of times, from Semetic tribes to Egyptian pharaohs to Roman Catholics to Muslim traders to Christian crusaders to Muslim Turks, and so forth. For every fence that was built and every line that was drawn, rivals always built a bigger ladder or dug a deeper tunnel. And so the feud was passed from generation to generation,…

china inc.

The Editor — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 21:51:09 +0000

This counter-factual analysis of China’s path toward capitalism reveals that the country’s biggest cities aren’t necessarily the engines of dynamic Asian progress that modern commentators have suggested, and that the country’s future may lie in rural areas where entrepreneurship and competition have thrived since Deng Xiaoping’s Four Modernizations…

Private ownership: The real source of China’s economic miracle
December 2008 • Yasheng Huang

The credibility of American-style capitalism was among the earliest victims of the global financial crisis. With Lehman Brothers barely in its grave, pundits the world over rushed to perform the last rites for US economic ideals, including limited government, minimal regulation, and the free-market allocation of credit. In contemplating alternatives to the fallen American…

the 44th president

The Editor — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 15:48:40 +0000

While the world comes to terms with yesterday’s historic call for change, Nouriel Roubini and his team have pulled together a laundry list of the many great challenges that lie ahead…

Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States
RGE Monitor

The 2008 U.S. Presidential election was historic itself owing to the candidates’ profile. But the timing of the elections as the U.S. and global economy are in the midst of the worst financial crisis and recession in decades reminds us of the Great Depression era and the 1980s recession when incoming Presidents Roosevelt and Reagan faced immense challenges to cure the economy’s woes.

By the time Obama takes his oath in January 2009,…

the great black north

The Editor — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 05:05:07 +0000

As Canadians flock to the polls later this month, quietly supplying 22% of America’s oil and 13% of its natural gas, its neighbours to the south have barely noticed. Cross-border oil flows are inevitable – given that America controls of a mere 2% of the world’s reserves and consumes almost 25% of supply – and securing its long-term petroleum assumes the full participation of Alberta’s carbon-rich tar sands and the off-shore bounty at Hibernia. Even Governor Palin’s Wildlife Reserve is virtually useless without passage by pipe across Canada’s Western provinces. Given the importance of “Securing America’s Energy Future” during a twin election year, it’s surprising that talk hasn’t returned to NAFTA,

an extraordinary episode

The Editor — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:47:50 +0000

Keynesian reflections from 1919 on the first era of true globalization, complete with bountiful trade, unparalleled upward mobility, liquid labor markets, secure international travel, and a blissful ignorance of the fragility of this new 20th Century World Order…

What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man that age was which came to an end in August 1914! The greater part of the population, it is true, worked hard and lived at a low standard of comfort, yet were, to all appearances, reasonably contented with this lot. But escape was possible, for any man of capacity or character at all exceeding the average, into the middle and upper classes, for whom life offered, at a low cost and with…

speculations on an oil tariff

The Editor — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:36:14 +0000

Assuming that the United States decides to impose a $25 per barrel tariff on all imported oil (crude and product) – and Canada and Mexico were not exempt — let’s explore how this might affect:

a. The volume of oil imported into the United States?

Volume responses to a $25 tariff would vary over time. In the near-term, there would only be a negligible decrease in the volume of oil imported (given a low short-run elasticity of energy demand) as industries, supply chains, and consumers remain highly dependent on existing petroleum infrastructure. The redistribution of the tariff (with tax reductions) would partially offset the incremental cost to businesses and consumers, but the policy is unlikely…

question 3

The Editor — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 04:56:11 +0000

An excerpt from the mid-term “problem set” in ENR-302…

3. The country of Xanadu is dependent of the use of domestically produced methanol for 100% of its energy needs. The price of methanol is set by a competitive market and the fuel is priced at $2.50 per gallon. Two large companies supply 80% of the market and each has costs of $1.50 per gallon. The opposition party and most of the national labor unions argue that these two companies are making obscene profits. They demand that the President place a mandatory price cap of $2.00 on the price of methanol to prevent “this abuse of market power.”

Assume that the elasticity of demand is 0.4 and…

private risk, public reward

The Editor — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 11:49:01 +0000

An expanded look at the role corporations and hospitable business environments have played in stabilizing the anarchic system of international relations. This work is based on an earlier paper which focused on the rise of the corporation as a key variable in the calculus of global peace and security…

Private Risk, Public Reward:
Stabilizing Frameworks and the Rise of Corporate Hegemony
By Devin DeCiantis | ISP-351 | Economics & Security

“The modern corporation as an institution is entitled to much more respect than it has frequently received.
It is, in fact, an institution at a cross-road in history,
Capable of becoming one of the master tools of society –…

the rise of global corporations

The Editor — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 20:04:20 +0000

This paper was written for quite possibly the best combination of professor and class I’ve ever experienced. If only all academic endeavor challenged so profoundly, surveyed so broadly, and bore as much intellectual fruit…

Hegemonic Stability and the Rise of Global Corporations
by Devin DeCiantis

“The logic of markets is borderless,
but the logic of politics remains bounded.”
- Louis W. Pauley, Who Elected the Bankers? Surveillance and Control in the World Economy, 1997

Traditional theories about power structures have focused on the role of states as principal agents in international affairs. In aggregate, these theories justify most of the major geopolitical incidents that…

knowing the right beards

The Editor — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:05:24 +0000

“Know thyself, know thy enemy. A thousand battles, a thousand victories.” In the case of Iran and the U.S., Sun Tzu’s prescient advice — combined with the thorough research of “your correspondent” — suggest that peace might be an easier wager than recent history predicts. With their popularity on the wane, like-minded conservatives in their ranks, and religious ideology on their side, Bush and Ahmadinejad have more in common today than either care to admit…

They think they have right on their side
Nov 22nd 2007 | TEHRAN, From The Economist print edition

Why the Iranians see themselves in a very different light

IT IS not hard to find examples of the…

on the rise of middle powers

The Editor — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 21:39:58 +0000

With great power may come great responsibility, but middle power certainly has its role to play policing the economic and political bulge. In this address at the CFR, Canada’s Prime Minister waxes idealistically about the challenges of a national resource bounty that rivals any in the world, a mixed ethnic heritage that is the model for progressive integration, and a desire to project Canadian sovereignty and foreign policy into the 21st century…

A Conversation with Stephen Harper [Rush Transcript; Federal News Services]
September 25, 2007, Council on Foreign Relations

Video Audio

PRIME MINISTER STEPHEN HARPER: “Merci beaucoup,” Marie-Josee. Thank you very much, Chairman Rubin, President Haass. Our consul general, Dan Sullivan, is here. And thank you…