From daily solar cycles to quarterly seasonal changes to the 130,000-year lapse between Ice Ages, our world is filled with natural ebbs and flows. Those that try to forecast the future by studying these longer sweeping patterns are often accused of being out of touch, relying on the distant past for established wisdom rather than embracing contemporary optimism that “this time is different“. In this essay in Foreign Affairs, Niall Ferguson reminds us that America is just as vulnerable to collapse as the many great civilizations that preceded it — maybe even more so given the increasing complexity of our modern global economy…

As ideological battles are waged over the benefits of free markets, the challenges of financial regulation, the inefficiency of policymaking, and the design of a sustainable path forward, pundits often attack one another without a fundamental understanding of the mechanics of our modern financial system. This primer helps to explain the unique roles that banks and capital markets play in the efficient (and sometimes painfully inefficient) functioning of of modern society. While it won’t settle any debates, it certainly reminds us how little we may know about the way the economy works…

“Zapatero is not a good driver. It’s like a boat, which in calm waters steers fine, but when it gets bumpy, they are not prepared.” The same could be said for many of the world’s C-level leaders, so it’s perhaps not surprising that both companies and countries are finding out the hard way that credit can dry up when the sea gets choppy…

The markets whipsawed in volatile trading last week as war was waged over key technical levels in the Dow (10,000) and S&P (1050). The backdrop was bitter sweet: trouble among the perennial sick men of Europe (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) on the one hand, and upbeat earnings in Corporate America on the other. With all the uncertainty over the short-term trajectory of the economy, it would be tough to fault political leaders for at least preaching that the glass is still half full. That said, it’s almost criminal for the Secretary of the Treasury to tell the American people — on their holiest of sporting days — that America’s economy was frothing at the end of last year, …

It isn’t surprising that so-called “ambulance economics” has gained mass policy appeal as the global economy descends into madness. The battlefield, after all, is no place for quiet research and careful study.  But even the most pressing humanitarian disasters could use a little “clinical economics” to help decision-makers better chart out the way forward. Recent poverty relief efforts in Haiti, for instance, should certainly focus first on the bare essentials of sustenance, sanitation, and security. Once politicians and development professionals are able to stop the bleeding, however, the really critical work actually begins in terms of supporting the long-term prosperity of the country. In that spirit, any path forward should take into consideration the unique historical, geographic, cultural, and …

A perennial hot ticket on the lecture circuit at economic clubs and grad schools around the planet, Paul Volcker‘s influence is finally starting to resonate where it counts: at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. As his testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee looms, the broader premise of a more responsible financial services sector pursuing sustainable, profitable growth needs to get out in clear journalistic prose from a messenger untarnished by the last 18 months of political and economic triage. This Sunday NYTimes op-ed attempts to do just that, despite the complexity of the topic. Unfortunately, it falls a little short for those either too stubborn or greedy to listen or too impatient to digest his astute commentary on …

“America’s mainstream religious denominations used to teach the faithful that they would be rewarded in the afterlife. But over the past generation, a different strain of Christian faith has proliferated—one that promises to make believers rich in the here and now. Known as the prosperity gospel, and claiming tens of millions of adherents, it fosters risk-taking and intense material optimism. It pumped air into the housing bubble. And one year into the worst downturn since the Depression, it’s still going strong.”